Mission Viejo
138
days expected market time
170 active · 37 pending
110 days two weeks earlier · 70 days one year ago
+6 days vs. Orange County
Irvine Branch Manager, First Team Real EstateBradColeman.com949-939-0300
ORANGE COUNTY HOUSING MARKET UPDATE
The Market Behind the Headlines
More inventory. Less demand. Higher market time. And an economy that isn't making affordability any easier.
Brad Coleman, Broker Associate | Branch Manager | REALTOR®
First Team Real Estate · California DRE Broker License #01290481
November 10, 2026
Integrity. Experience. Results.
Exceptional Properties. Proven Results.
The Market in One Minute
Scope: Orange CountyMore Homes. Fewer Buyers. Longer Market Times.
Scope: Orange County
4,845
Active Listings
+18.1% year over year
Scope: Orange County
1,099
Pending Sales (Prior 30 Days)
−26.1% year over year
Scope: Orange County
132
Days Expected Market Time
+49 days year over year
The supply-demand imbalance has become substantially more pronounced.
Source: Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing | November 9, 2026
Scope: Orange County
Orange County
Orange County Market
Scope: Orange CountyOrange County's Market Has Slowed Substantially
Two-week movement
Scope: Orange County
4,845
Active Listings
4,948 two weeks ago · −2%
Scope: Orange County
1,099
Pending Sales
1,219 two weeks ago · −10%
Scope: Orange County
132
Expected Market Time (days)
122 two weeks ago · +10 days
Demand is dropping faster than supply.
Source: Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing | November 9, 2026
OC Market · Inventory
Scope: Orange CountyInventory Is Falling Seasonally, But Remains Elevated
Scope: Orange County
4,845
Active Listings
+18.1% vs. November 2025 (4,103)
Highest November inventory since 2019.
“Falling inventory doesn't automatically mean improving market strength.”
Source: Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing | November 9, 2026 (original chart reproduced with permission)
OC Market · Demand
Scope: Orange CountyBuyer Demand Is the Most Concerning Number
Scope: Orange County
1,099
Pending Sales, Prior 30 Days
Scope: Orange County
−26.1%
Year over year
1,487 one year ago
Scope: Orange County
−10%
Over two weeks
1,219 two weeks ago
Lowest November demand reading since tracking began in 2004.
Source: Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing | November 9, 2026 (original chart reproduced with permission)
OC Market · Expected Market Time
Scope: Orange County132 Days Changes the Conversation
Scope: Orange County
132
Days expected market time
Scope: Orange County
+49 days
vs. 83 days one year ago
Scope: Orange County
122 days
Two weeks earlier
Highest November reading since 2008.
Sellers can't rely on expectations formed in faster markets.
Source: Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing | November 9, 2026 (original chart reproduced with permission)
OC Market · Year Over Year
Scope: Orange CountyThis Is Not the Same Market as Last November
| Metric | Nov 2025 | Nov 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active Listings | 4,103 | 4,845 | +18.1% |
| Demand (pending, 30 days) | 1,487 | 1,099 | −26.1% |
| Expected Market Time | 83 days | 132 days | +49 days |
More competition among sellers. Less urgency among buyers. More need for informed strategy.
Source: Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing | November 9, 2026
OC Market · Seasonality
Scope: Orange CountyThe Holidays Usually Slow Both Sides
Mid-November to year-end declines
Market time change: 2023 +1 day · 2024 +4 days · 2025 +2 days
Scope: Orange County
132
2026 starts at — days expected market time
Scope: Orange County
1,617
Sellers withdrew in Nov–Dec 2025
When inventory and demand fall together, market time often changes little.
Source: Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing | November 9, 2026 (historical mid-Nov to year-end declines)
OC Market · Segments
Scope: Orange CountyPrice Point and Property Type Change the Story
Expected market time by price (days)
Scope: Orange County
123 days
Detached
77 days in Nov 2025
Scope: Orange County
146 days
Attached (condo/townhome)
92 days in Nov 2025
County averages provide context. The specific property market determines strategy.
Source: Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing | November 9, 2026
OC Market · Luxury Above $2.5M
Scope: Orange CountyThe Higher End Is Experiencing More Friction
Scope: Orange County
943
Luxury Active Listings
958 two weeks ago
Scope: Orange County
123
Luxury Pending Sales
150 two weeks ago
Scope: Orange County
−18%
Luxury Demand, Two Weeks
Scope: Orange County
230
Days Expected Market Time
192 two weeks ago · 169 last year
Luxury buyers may have capacity but more discretion over timing. Sellers need patience, sharper positioning, and stronger property-specific marketing.
Source: Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing | November 9, 2026
Scope: Mission Viejo
Our Markets
Our Markets
Your Market Matters More Than the Headline
San Clemente
115
days expected market time
119 active · 31 pending
123 days two weeks earlier · 95 days one year ago
−17 days vs. Orange County
Orange County
132
days expected market time
County average for comparison
There is a difference between THE market and YOUR market.
Source: Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing — city-level market-time table, Nov 5, 2026
OC Market · Distress
Scope: Orange CountyNot Every Down Market Is a Distressed Market
Scope: Orange County
0.4%
of active inventory is distressed
21 distressed active listings: 9 foreclosures · 12 short sales.
Scope: Orange County
1,729
Sept 2026 resales
1,805 in 2025
Scope: Orange County
99.1%
Sept sales-to-list ratio
Scope: Orange County
~99.83%
Sept closings non-distressed
Transaction volume can decline substantially without widespread forced selling.
Source: Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing | November 9, 2026
Scope: California
California
The Economy · California
Scope: CaliforniaCalifornia Adds Another Layer to Affordability
01
Scope: CaliforniaHousing Policy
$11.25B
Proposition 1 authorizes housing affordability bonds, including down-payment assistance.
02
Scope: CaliforniaBuyer Financing
Up to $25B
Proposition 37: financing for eligible buyers of qualifying new homes — up to 17% of price.
03
Scope: CaliforniaInsurance
Ownership cost
Coverage availability and premiums matter, especially for wildfire-exposed and hillside homes.
Programs create possibilities. Eligibility and implementation determine whether they help a client.
Source: CA Secretary of State voter guide (Props 1 & 37); KQED / Associated Press election calls, Nov 3, 2026
Scope: National
The Economy
The Economy · Inflation
Scope: NationalInflation Isn't Cooperating With the Rate Relief Narrative
October CPI, month over month
Note: September CPI was +0.6%.
Scope: National
+0.4%
Headline CPI (Oct)
vs. +0.3% forecast
Scope: National
+0.3%
Core CPI (Oct)
vs. +0.2% forecast
Scope: National
+0.6%
September CPI
Prior month
Cooler than September, but above expectations. Persistent inflation can keep Treasury yields — and mortgage rates — elevated.
“Better than last month” is not the same as “better than expected.”
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI for October 2026 (released Nov 10, 2026); Reuters, Nov 10, 2026
The Economy · Federal Reserve
Scope: NationalThe Federal Reserve Is Still Fighting Inflation
Scope: National
3.75%–4.00%
Current Fed Funds Target Range
Held unchanged at the October 28 FOMC meeting.
The Fed continues to describe inflation as elevated.
Governor Waller, Nov 10
Scope: National
+0.25
Favors a quarter-point increase in December.
Scope: National
+0.50
Could warrant consideration if inflation remains persistent.
Individual policymaker view — not a formal December FOMC decision.
Don't build your client's financial strategy around an interest-rate prediction.
Source: Federal Reserve FOMC statement, Oct 28, 2026; Governor Christopher Waller speech, Nov 10, 2026
The Economy · Mortgage Rates
Scope: NationalMortgage Rates Don't Simply Follow the Fed
30-yr fixed (national avg)
Scope: National
4.86% → ~4.94%
10-Year Treasury
Nov 6 → Nov 10 after CPI
Scope: National
Above expectations
November 10 CPI
Three weekly rate declines came before the report.
Scope: National
6.22%
30-yr fixed, a year ago
A year ago
Three weeks of improvement — then the inflation data renewed pressure on bond yields.
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (national averages, Nov 5, 2026); Federal Reserve/FRED DGS10; Reuters, Nov 10, 2026
The Economy · Jobs vs. Sentiment
Scope: NationalThe Economy Is Stronger Than Many Consumers Feel
Economic data
Scope: National
+165K
Jobs in October
Scope: National
4.1%
Unemployment
Scope: National
3.1%
Annual wage growth
Resilient employment supports qualification and household stability.
Consumer sentiment
Scope: National
51.0
Nov preliminary
Scope: National
48.0
Oct final
Improved, but still weak in absolute terms.
Financial ability and willingness to buy are two different things.
Source: BLS Employment Situation, October 2026 (Nov 6); University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, prelim. Nov 2026
The Economy · Markets & Geopolitics
Scope: NationalGlobal Headlines Can Reach a Local Mortgage Payment
Scope: National
$92.57
Brent Crude, Nov 9
−5.85% one day
Scope: National
+2.35%
S&P 500, Nov 9
Single-day move
Scope: National
+2.74%
Nasdaq, Nov 9
Single-day move
01
Oil
Energy costs
02
Inflation
Price pressure
03
Treasury yields
Bond market
04
Mortgage pricing
Monthly payment
Also: stock volatility → consumer wealth, down-payment liquidity, and confidence.
Connections are real but indirect. One market day is not a trend.
Source: Reuters market coverage, Nov 9–10, 2026
Context
The Holidays Are Arriving in an Already Slow Market
Economic pressure
- Elevated mortgage rates
- Inflation uncertainty
- Affordability challenges
- Cautious consumer sentiment
Seasonal pressure
- Fewer new listings
- More withdrawn listings
- Reduced buyer activity
- Holiday distractions
The seasonal slowdown isn't creating all the weakness. It's adding to it.
Strategy · Buyers
Buyers Aren't Just Questioning the Price. They're Questioning the Decision.
01
Affordability
“Interest rates are too high.”
“Can I afford the complete monthly payment?”
02
Risk
“What if prices fall?”
03
Confidence
“What if my job becomes less secure?”
04
Timing
“What if rates improve next spring?”
Different objections require different conversations.
The Market Doesn't Need to Get Easier for You to Get Better.
- 01Understand the numbers.
- 02Lead the conversation.
- 03Execute the plan.
“Consumers don't need more headlines. They need leadership.”
Brad Coleman
Broker Associate | Branch Manager | REALTOR®
First Team Real Estate
949-939-0300BradColeman@FirstTeam.comBradColeman.com
California DRE Broker License #01290481
Integrity. Experience. Results.
Exceptional Properties. Proven Results.